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Retail Fundamentals on the Decline Due to Inflation, Banking Issues: JLL

Originally published on May 9, 2023, by Keisha Virtue for JLL.

Executive summary:

  • Retail fundamentals have started to pull back as a consequence of sustained inflation and banking troubles. Consumers have responded to persistent inflation by shifting money away from discretionary goods purchases in favor of groceries and other key necessities. Discounters and online retailers win consumers’ dollars, as real disposable income wanes.
  • Net absorption totaled a modest 9.1 million square feet for the quarter – a substantial decline from the 20.1 million square feet absorbed in the fourth quarter.
  • Demand is still coming largely from discounters like Burlington and dollar stores, as well as QSRs and fast casual restaurants. In fact, aggressive expansion by QSRs and coffee chains have contributed to a record-low availability rate of single-tenant retail space at just 2.4%.
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Single-tenant Net Lease Cap Rates Rise: The Boulder Group

Originally published on April 12, 2023, by the Boulder Group.

Cap rates in the single-tenant net lease sector increased during the first quarter, marking four consecutive quarters of growth, The Boulder Group reported April 6 in its Q1 2023 Net Lease Market report. Industrial cap rates rose to 6.77% while retail and office cap rates reached their highest level since the third quarter 2020 at 6.05% and 7%, respectively.

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Land Not so Scarce in the Nation’s Biggest Cities, Especially Those in Texas: Report

Originally published on March 28, 2023 by Richard Berger for GlobeSt.com.

There’s plenty of land for development available nationwide, but it’s not cheap and hardly easy to acquire, zone, and develop.

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Home Flipping Increased in 2022, Spurred by Investors, Data Shows

Originally published on March 23, 2023, by ATTOM.

ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, today released its year-end 2022 U.S. Home Flipping Report, which shows that 407,417 single-family homes and condos in the United States were flipped in 2022. That was up 14 percent from 357,666 in 2021, and up 58 percent from 2020, to the highest point since at least 2005.

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More Lakefront Properties Available; Lake Michigan Takes the Lead: Report

Originally published on March 15, 2023, by LakeHomes.com.

There are more than 70,000 lake homes and lots for sale in the U.S. with a combined value of more than $33 billion, up from the 60,000 or so properties available last spring with a combined value of around $26 billion, according to the Lake Real Estate Market report released March 9. Lake Michigan has the largest available inventory, followed by Puget Sound in Washington and Lake Norman in North Carolina.

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Some Real Estate Sectors ‘Normalizing,’ Others Seeing ‘New Normal:’ Report

Originally published on October 27, 2022, by PwC.

The Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PwC US today released Emerging Trends in Real Estate® 2023, an annual report highlighting the trends shaping the real estate industry. In its 44th edition, the report includes proprietary data and insights from more than 2,000 leading real estate industry experts, exploring shifts in the property sector since the pandemic, changing investor sentiment toward climate risks, the emergence of impact investing, and other real estate issues within the United States and Canada.

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Report Finds Some Racial Disparities in Home Appraisals

Originally published in November 2022 by Junia Howell and Elizabeth Korver-Glenn for the Arts & Sciences at Washington University.

Homes in predominately white neighborhoods are reportedly appraised at double the value of homes in communities of color with comparable amenities, the Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy concluded in its Nov. 3 report Appraised: The Persistent Evaluation of White Neighborhoods as More Valuable Than Communities of Color. The report utilizes information found in the Uniform Appraisal Dataset.

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New Appraisal Institute Book Addressed Residential Market Analysis

Originally published on October 19, 2022, by the Appraisal Institute.

Residential Market Analysis and Highest and Best Use by Mark R. Ratterman, MAI, SRA, explores how appraisers can plan and perform detailed market and highest and best use analyses that lead to credible and supportable value conclusions. The book uses real-world examples to demonstrate productivity analysis, examine supply and demand relationships in residential markets and explore best practices for researching data sources and applying statistical tools.

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Single-tenant Cap Rates Up in Q3: The Boulder Group

Cap rates in the single-tenant net lease sector were up slightly in all sectors during the third quarter, the first time in two years with consecutive quarterly increases, The Boulder Group reported on Oct. 6 in its Q3 2022 Net Lease Market report. Retail reached 5.86%, office hit 6.8% and industrial came in at 6.61%.

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Foreclosure Filings Down 4% in July, but Annual Totals Show Dramatic Increase: ATTOM

Originally published on August 9, 2022, by the ATTOM Staff for ATTOM.

ATTOM, a leading curator of real estate data nationwide for land and property data, today released its July 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows there were a total of 30,358 U.S. properties with foreclosure filings — default notices, scheduled auctions or bank repossessions — down 4 percent from a month ago but up 143 percent from a year ago.

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Multifamily Positioned Well for Remainder of the Year, Freddie Mac Forecasts 

Originally published on August 2, 2022, by Freddie Mac.

The economy has entered a turbulent time as interest rates have moved up and inflation is very real for consumers. The likelihood of recession is much higher than earlier this year according to most macroeconomic forecasters, and the sharp rise in interest rates has already impacted volume as borrowers and investors may have sidelined deals until the volatility levels out. Despite the increased uncertainty, the multifamily industry is positioned well and we forecast solid performance for the year. 

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US Needs 4 Million More Apartments by 2035, Research Shows

Originally published on August 3, 2022, by the National Multifamily Housing Council.

Nearly 4.3 million new apartments will be needed across the U.S. by 2035 to meet housing demand, according to research released July 28 by the National Multifamily Housing Council and the National Apartment Association. Currently, there is a shortage of around 600,000 units, and the number of affordable apartments — those with rents less than $1,000 per month — has declined by 4.7 million between 2015-20.

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Student Housing Continues to Break Records: Yardi Matrix 

Originally published on July 27, 2022 by Yardi Matrix.

The student housing industry continued to break records in the second quarter of 2022, according to the new quarterly National Student Housing Report from Yardi® Matrix.

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Cities in the Sun Belt and the West Experiencing the Most Growth: Census Bureau Data

Originally published on Mary 31, 2022, by Erik Sherman for GlobeSt.com.

As the Census Bureau analysis continues on the 2020 decennial count of the country, there are more specific data on the general trend that virtually anyone in commercial real estate knows: people are moving from various parts of the country to the Sun Belt and West.

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Nearly 20% of Home Sellers are Dropping Asking Prices, According to Redfin

Originally published on May 26, 2022, by Kenneth Applewhaite for Redfin.

The housing market is sending clearer signals that the pandemic-driven housing frenzy is coming to an end, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

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Commercial and Multifamily Borrowing Surges 72% from Last Year: MBA Report

Originally published o May 12, 2022 by the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Commercial and multifamily mortgage loan originations increased by 72 percent in the first quarter from a year ago, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday.

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Mortgage Rates Increase Alongside Rising Inflation, Freddie Mac Survey Shows

Originally published on March 5, 2022, by Freddie Mac.

Mortgage rates rose in the past week amid rising inflation and the expectation of strong demand for goods, Freddie Mac reported on March 31 in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. While purchase demand has weakened slightly, it has continued to outperform expectations.

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White House Issues Action Plan on Bias in Appraisals

Originally published on March 30, 2022 by the White House.

The Property Appraisal and Valuation Equity Task Force on March 23 published an Action Plan to address concerns about lower appraisals for properties owned by individuals of color. The Appraisal Institute provided input to the Task Force, whose Action Plan covers appraisal standards, diversity within the valuation profession, and reporting requirements for violations of federal law.

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CRE Executives Express Concern About Economy, Pandemic and World Affairs: Report

Originally published on March 22, 2022 by Michael Tucker for Mortgage Bankers Association.

After a challenging two years, the real estate industry again faces more uncertainty–and not just for the short term, a new report from the Urban Land Institute and PwC said.

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Conflict in Ukraine Likely to Effect US Housing: Fannie Mae

Originally published on March 17, 2022, by Matthew Classick for Fannie Mae.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine, and its implications for the global economy, have added to growing inflation pressures and ongoing supply chain difficulties as monetary policy tightening begins, according to the March 2022 commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group. The ESR Group now projects full-year 2022 real GDP growth of 2.3 percent, down from last month’s projected 2.8 percent, but acknowledges that many of its forecast’s base assumptions, including a near-term resolution to the acute global economic effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, represent substantial downside risks to both the macroeconomic and housing outlooks. Prior to the conflict, inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, hit a 40-year high and the Federal Reserve was poised to begin a course of significant monetary tightening. According to the ESR Group, the central bank’s already difficult task of enacting a “soft landing” – that is, raising rates to combat inflation without precipitating economic contraction – has been further complicated by the recent geopolitical developments. Despite the substantial uncertainty, the ESR Group continues to expect the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate five times in 2022 and eight times total through 2023.

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