A detailed analysis of population and employment data, along with the use of fair share comparisons, increases the accuracy of assumptions made by appraisers when completing commercial valuation assignments, according to a study published this week in The Appraisal Journal.

The Appraisal Journal is the quarterly technical and academic publication of the Appraisal Institute, the nation’s largest professional association of real estate appraisers. The materials presented in the publication represent the opinions and views of the authors and not necessarily those of the Appraisal Institute.

New findings from a National Association of Realtors® survey show that more Americans believe that now is a good time to purchase a home. Consumer opinions about home buying bounced back in the first quarter of 2019, with 37 percent stating that they strongly believe now is a good time to buy, up from 34 percent in the last quarter of 2018 but down from 38 percent one year ago. Only 35 percent of respondents said that now is not a good time to buy a home, compared to 37 percent in 2018's fourth quarter.

NAR's first quarter Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) survey 1also found that a majority of those polled, 53 percent, said that the economy is improving – down slightly from 59 percent at the end of last year. In 2019, optimism is the greatest among those who earn $100,000 or more and those who reside in rural areas. Fifty percent of Generation X said the economy is improving, while 42 percent of urban area residents reported the same.

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By Matt Grossman

A merger between two of the country’s most active debt-advisory shops is set to create the largest commercial real estate debt practice in the country.

By Michael Tucker

Three themes anchor the U.S. commercial real estate investment outlook: U.S. economic performance, cycle maturity and the monetary policy outlook, said Cushman & Wakefield, New York.

By David Bodamer

Although it has not been the star of this extended commercial real estate cycle, the office sector has delivered its fair share of strong performance and solid returns. Occupancy rates and rents rose, cap rates fell and development has been kept in check.

Freddie Mac(OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that mortgage rates held steady after declining for three consecutive weeks.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “Mortgage rates remained mostly unchanged this week, while mortgage applications rose 5.3 percent from the previous week. The general decline in rates we have seen recently, combined with rebounding pending home sales, hint at a strong spring homebuying season.”

Freddie Mac(OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing that fixed-rate mortgages fell to the lowest levels since early 2018.

Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says, “The combination of cooling inflation and slower global economic growth led mortgage rates to drift down to the lowest levels in a year. While housing activity has clearly softened over the last nine months and the lingering effects of higher rates from last year are still being felt, lower mortgage rates and a strong job market should rekindle demand for the spring homebuying season.”

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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau on Feb. 12 released its 2019 list of rural and underserved counties, which those entities can use to determine if they are exempt from certain appraisal and ability-to-pay rules.

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By Christine Stricker

ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database, today released its Year-End 2018 U.S. Home Sales Report, which shows that home sellers in 2018 realized an average home price gain since purchase of $61,000, up from $50,000 last year and up from $39,500 two years ago in 2016 to the highest level since 2006 — a 12-year high.

By Michael Gerrity

According to JLL's latest research, Flexing Their Muscles: Markets to Watch in 2019, the U.S. office market is poised to take on significantly more office flex space in the coming year.

"The world's top companies recognize there is no one-size-fits-all flexible approach, just like there's no one type of worker," said Doug Sharp, President, JLL Corporate Solutions, Americas. "Flexible space options allow workers and teams to select the right space to perform work each day in a location that will help realize their company's mission and their own ambitions. This is one of the reasons we see so much runway for flex space in U.S. office markets - it addresses several core needs for employers and employees alike."

Flexible space inventory (including coworking space, incubators and other short-term space options) has grown at an annual rate of 23 percent since 2010. In 2018, flexible space accounted for nearly two-thirds of the country's office market occupancy gains. JLL predicts it will comprise approximately a third of the market by 2030, compared to less than 5 percent today.

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Mortgage banking and investment sales experts at Berkadia are preparing for interest rate hikes and adopting new technologies this year, according to the firm’s 2019 Outlook Powerhouse Poll. The proprietary poll, conducted in December 2018, collected insights from over 150 Berkadia investment sales brokers and mortgage bankers across 60 offices to assess 2018 commercial real estate activity and opportunities for the year ahead.

Despite four interest rate increases throughout 2018, investment sales brokers and mortgage bankers alike agree that the commercial real estate industry ended the year on a high note—82 percent said that deal volume either met or exceeded their expectations for the year. However, Berkadia’s professionals are keeping a close eye on interest rates in 2019. Eighty-one percent of mortgage bankers and 83 percent of investment sales brokers have it on their radar for the year ahead.

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The Mortgage Bankers Association this morning reported December mortgage applications for new homes fell by 13 percent from November and by 6.1 percent from a year ago.

In a separate report yesterday, the National Association of Home Builders reported its January Housing Market Index stabilized amid lower interest rates.

By Patricia Kirk

The outlook for industrial real estate in 2019 is bright, with continued strength in property fundamentals, demand outpacing supply, rent growth and strong absorption squeezing already tight vacancy rates.

By Michael Tucker

After several quarters of record-breaking high rents and low vacancies, the industrial real estate sector will likely "pause" soon, said JLL, Chicago. But it said that could be good news for smart owners, investors and occupiers.

By Jessica Guerin

After months of uneven recovery following last October’s program changes, reverse mortgage volume has fallen to a low it hasn’t seen since 2004.

Commercial real estate activity was modest to moderate in most Federal Reserve districts, while residential activity was reported to be mostly flat or declining — although the majority of districts reported increased home prices, according to the Fed Beige Book released Dec. 5. 

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By Kelsey Ramirez

Buying and selling a home is about to get a lot more difficult in 2019, or so says one expert in her forecast for next year.

The limited supply of urban industrial inventory available for “last mile” e-commerce distribution space is causing investors and end-users to get creative by repositioning other types of real estate with failed uses or shrinking demand, according to a JLL report, Urban infill: the route to delivery solutions.”  The report notes that annual total e-commerce deliveries have more than tripled over the past five years, but development of new urban industrial infill assets has remained relatively flat.

Despite dwindling opportunities in urban locations, investors remain interested in the 18 percent sales price premium last mile industrial assets command over “first mile” locations, and the higher rents users are willing to pay in order to be near their customer base.

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A modest increase in interest rates and home prices kept housing affordability at a 10-year low in the third quarter of 2018, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) released today.

In all, 56.4 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of July and end of September were affordable to families earning the U.S. median income of $71,900. This is down from the 57.1 percent of homes sold in the second quarter that were affordable to median-income earners and the lowest reading since mid-2008.

By John Egan

Some commercial real estate observers might be a little worked up about how office REITs might be affected by WeWork and its co-working brethren. Yet is that consternation really warranted?